On Saturday, March 8, 2025, China announced a significant escalation in its trade dispute with Canada, unveiling plans to impose steep tariffs on a range of Canadian agricultural and aquatic products. Effective March 20, 2025, these measures include a 100% tariff on imports of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, alongside a 25% tariff on select seafood products and pork. The announcement, made by China’s Ministry of Finance, deepens concerns over an intensifying global trade war, as major economies increasingly wield tariffs as tools of economic retaliation.

A Tit-for-Tat Response

China’s decision comes as a direct response to tariffs imposed by Canada in October 2024, which targeted Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), steel, and aluminum. Ottawa had introduced a 100% levy on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, aligning itself with similar measures taken by the United States and the European Union. These Western actions were framed as countermeasures to what Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described in August 2024 as China’s “intentional state-directed policy of over-capacity,” aimed at protecting domestic industries from subsidized Chinese exports.

China’s Ministry of Finance labeled Canada’s tariffs as “discriminatory,” arguing that they “seriously violate the rules of the World Trade Organization” and inflict significant harm on Chinese industries’ legitimate rights and interests. The retaliatory tariffs on Canadian goods appear calibrated to mirror Canada’s levies, with the 100% and 25% rates directly echoing Ottawa’s earlier duties. This symmetry underscores Beijing’s intent to send a clear message: actions against Chinese exports will be met with proportional economic pushback.

Impact on Canadian Exports

The tariffs target key Canadian exports, particularly in the agricultural sector, where Canada holds a strong position globally. Canada is one of the world’s leading producers of rapeseed—commonly known as canola—with China serving as its second-largest market for canola products. In 2023, Canadian exports of canola seed, oil, and meal to China were valued at approximately C$5 billion (around US$3.5 billion), according to the Canola Council of Canada. The 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and meal threatens to severely disrupt this trade flow, potentially leaving Canadian farmers with a surplus and forcing them to seek alternative markets, such as Japan or the European Union.

Similarly, the 25% tariff on pork and seafood will hit Canada’s aquatic and livestock industries. While China’s pork imports from Canada have declined in recent years due to domestic oversupply, the new levy could further erode this market. Seafood exporters, including those dealing in lobster and other high-value products, also face challenges as the tariffs raise the cost of entry into China, a significant consumer of global aquatic goods.

Broader Trade War Context

China’s move opens a new front in an already complex global trade war, largely catalyzed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Earlier this week, Trump imposed 25% duties on most Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, affecting roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports. Canada now finds itself squeezed between two economic superpowers, facing U.S. tariffs on one side and Chinese retaliation on the other. This dual pressure amplifies fears of a fragmented global trade system, with ripple effects likely to strain supply chains and increase costs for consumers worldwide.

Analysts see China’s timing as strategic. By announcing the tariffs now, Beijing may be signaling to Canada—and indirectly to Mexico—the economic cost of aligning too closely with U.S. trade policies. Some experts suggest that China’s exclusion of canola seed from the tariff list (pending the outcome of an ongoing anti-dumping investigation launched in September 2024) could be a deliberate move to keep the door ajar for negotiations, while still applying enough pressure to deter further escalation.

Economic and Political Implications

For Canada, the tariffs pose immediate economic challenges. The agricultural sector, a cornerstone of the Canadian economy, must now navigate disrupted trade routes and potential oversupply at home. The government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has yet to issue an official response, but pressure is mounting to address both the Chinese retaliation and the broader U.S.-led trade offensive. Canada recently committed over C$6 billion to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and diversify its markets, a strategy that may need rapid expansion to counter China’s actions.

Politically, China’s tariffs could complicate Canada’s balancing act between its economic ties with the U.S. and its trade relationship with China. The move also echoes past tensions, such as the 2019 sanctions on Canadian canola following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, highlighting Beijing’s willingness to leverage agricultural imports as a diplomatic weapon.

Looking Ahead

As March 20 approaches, the international community watches closely to see whether Canada will adjust its stance or double down on its tariffs, potentially triggering further retaliation. China, meanwhile, faces its own constraints, juggling trade disputes with the U.S., the EU, and now Canada, while maintaining domestic economic stability amid weakening consumption and abundant oilseed stocks.

The tariffs underscore a troubling trend: the weaponization of trade in an era of geopolitical rivalry. For businesses and consumers, the fallout may mean higher prices and reduced choice. For policymakers, the challenge lies in navigating this new reality without sacrificing economic resilience or international cooperation. As the global trade war deepens, the stakes—for Canada, China, and the world—continue to rise.